Formula 1 Season Preview
March 04, 2005This weekend sees the start of the 2005 FIA Formula 1 World Championship taking place at the Albert Park circuit in Melbourne. As always the first race of the year is the only real opportunity for the world to determine what teams have done their homework best over the winter months.
It's all change for 2005 with a raft of regulation changes designed to spice up the racing and inject some much needed unpredictability into the race season. Generally these changes have been received with scepticism by the teams, who are beginning to tire of the forced manipulation attempts by the governing bodies.
The most major change in many people's eyes focuses around the new tyre rule which dictates that a driver must complete second qualifying and the entire race on just one set of tyres. Some cars and drivers are much harder on their tyres than others although the effect of this could largely be minimised by altering the pit stop strategy and reducing the number of laps spent on a set, with this option removed it means these runners will spend a much greater proportion of the race on either overly hard or worn tyres. In the case of a driver pushing too hard and wearing out their rubber, this will leave them as sitting ducks in the final section of the race which is bound to lead to some heart stopping finishes. Safety is harmed by this decision however, with drivers loath to come in to the pits if they flat spot a tyre or run over crash debris, preferring to push on and hope it doesn't result in a puncture.
Only one engine is allowed for every two grand prixs this year, in an effort to halt rapidly rising costs. Whilst in reality it won't save a penny for the major engine makers, it does introduce a ten position penalty on the starting grid for anyone who ends up having to replace one prematurely. This could easily lead to a situation where a front runner ends up starting from 11th or worse on the grid, hopefully promoting a bit of overtaking during the race.
Qualifying rules have again changed with a drivers aggregate times from two separate sessions being added together to determine the starting order. Best of all, the first session will be run on light tanks with fresh tyres, marking a return to the good old days of qualifying when the car and drivers skills could be shown off to the ultimate degree, it is feared that the new format will prove confusing, hence unpopular, hence will get dropped quickly.
FERRARI
Looking at the form book, it's that man Michael Schumacher again (4/7 for title with Paddy Power) who is the favourite. Off season testing form has been decidedly average but Ferrari has yet to run the proper specification of Bridgestone tyre and they have elected to start with an updated version of their 2004 car, rather than dive right in with the 2005 car. This is a luxury a team only has if last years car enjoyed a significant advantage over the rivals, which it certainly did. Ferrari engineers can now sit back and study the data logged from the first few races, steadily using it to refine the 2005 cars design to ensure it is a guaranteed race winner when it hits the track.
Bridgestone are concerned over Ferraris decision to withhold the new car, claiming that the interim version of last years car will struggle to adapt to the new harder compound tyres. If this turns out to be true then expect the 2005 car to appear at round 3, otherwise it will probably break cover at round 5.
Schumacher himself, record breaker and maker of legendary status already, is just two pole positions away from snatching the only record of note worth having, which is Senna's 65 pole position mark. Not only is it a given he will achieve two pole positions, it's also likely to happen in the next couple of months. As it stands he has won 83 of 211 GP's entered, set 66 fastest race laps and he is now the oldest driver in F1 at 36. He claims racing against younger drivers doesn't concern him, why would it when you are still beating them so comprehensively?
Faithful team mate Rubens Barrichello remains for 2005, still seemingly happy to tag along in the number two role. He knows better than anyone in this world just how fast Schumacher really is and it appears he has come to terms with the fact he won't beat him. In this situation Ferrari is the place to be, giving him a great shot at 2nd overall each year. Over recent seasons Rubens has become a more consistent performer, still struggling occasionally but typically dependable enough to do a competent job.
RENAULT
Winter testing suggests Renault will be the team to take the fight to Ferrari this year. It's obvious to the discerning eye that they have taken a radically (in F1 terms) different philosophy to car design for the last few years with moderate to good success, potentially the new tyre rules with the added importance on tyre conservation this has brought has thrown Renault as massive bone. Their biggest problem will come from having two very evenly matched drivers who frequently score points of one another, although if a championship win is on the horizon it is very possible one of the pairing will up their game to consistently challenge for wins.
Fernando Alonso had a quiet year in 2004 after the buzz he generated in '03, although he did seem to have the knack of squeezing everything from the car he had on any given day, a useful trait displayed by many champions so maybe '05 will be his year. Team mate Giancarlo Fisichella is a fast, classy driver and regularly wins the Driver's Driver of the year awards. If he can just get a consistent, fast car under him we might get a glimpse of his ultimate potential, so far in his career it's been a case of right place, wrong time.
Should Ferrari slip, then of all the teams Renault at 9/1 do look worth a small investment to finish top of the constructors championship.
MCLAREN
Next best team in the winter testing world championship is Mclaren, who have a potentially explosive line up in Kimi Raikkonen and Juan Pablo Montoya. Provided Mercedes haven't made a total balls up with the engine again, the car looks a tidy package and it would be sensational to have these two immense talents fighting it out for wins. One way or another, it's going to be quite a season at the Silver Arrows.
HONDA
British hopes lie squarely at the feet of a young Jenson Button, whose hopes lie squarely at the feet of a very large Japanese motor company known as Honda. Major gaffs last year whilst trying to escape the team for a floundering Williams will not have endeared "our Jense" to the owners, coupled to the fact old boss Dave Richards has been surgically removed from the concern after virtually single handedly turning fortunes around does not make the kind of start one would have hoped for. Add to all of this the poor winter testing form and a fast, Japanese team mate (Takuma Sato), things really aren't looking too rosy. Champions, however, are made in times of adversity, so maybe this is what he needs. We might learn more about Jenson's character this season than we did last.
Sato seems to have reigned in his suicidal tendencies and could well be on course for some decent finishes. At times last year he was genuinely faster than Button and if this coincides with a good circuit for BAR Honda he could be on a promise.
WILLIAMS
All change at Williams with two new drivers, a new technical director and a leaner budget than previously as BMW begin to get a bit shy. Is this a team in crisis? Undeniably. It seems amazing that they have sunk to this point; seemingly well out of the championship race already before a wheel has turned in anger, to sink further is unthinkable for such a high achiever as team principle Frank Williams. Mark Webber is a good driver, but is yet to touch the podium, certainly not got the required experience to consistently challenge for a title. Nick Heidfeld is a good team mate, blessed with the ability to wring the neck out of a poor car, but when gifted with a fast car, seems to transform into a journey man, afraid to realise his potential.
RED BULL RACING
New for 2005 (sort of) is Red Bull Racing, giving the soft drink the inroads into F1 they have been hankering after for seasons, born out of the ashes of the Jaguar F1 Team nee Stewart Racing. The original aim of this project heavily featured upon providing a top rung for Red Bull's proposed stair case of talent which aimed to bring young American talent right from karting to F1, giving Red Bull a larger presence in the American market. This has fallen down however as so far most of the chosen young hot shots have failed miserably upon attempting to leave the US and make their name in the European race series. Quite funny really.
The teams major asset is David Coulthard who joins them after a lengthy time at top team Mclaren where he perceivably failed to win a single title, and following Hakinnen's departure from the team, transformed the car from being a regular title challenger to being a mid pack battler, regularly found on the back of a tow truck. Whilst these facts are a damning monkey on his back, it's hard to forget the class act he was when he started in F1; many predict this could be a happy end and fruitful end to a long career. Joining him at the team is Ex-Jaguar pilot, Christian Klien, not a bad driver, but DC would be embarrassed to be getting much grief from him.
JORDAN
Jordan is in for the season from hell, beating Minardi could become a major achievement by the end of the season. Eddie Jordan has done a runner, selling his team to a consortium who are gearing up for a full attack on F1 in 2006. This means the already under funded team have just lost any hope for 2005 as any spare cash will be ploughed directly into the '06 project. The one good point in their favour is the Toyota engines which seem powerful but the drivers are far too green for F1, although Narain Karthikeyan (India's first F1 driver) is blinding fast but is likely to be frustrated and crash happy at this team.
SAUBER
Sauber Petronas are the perennial mid table team, they occasionally embarrass a better funded team but rarely grab headlines. This season, I predict, will be a little different. Often perceived as Ferraris sister team (they use Ferrari engines and last years car was a Ferrari cast off painted blue), they have made a bold move by switching to Michelin (as opposed to Ferrari's Bridgestones) and are actively seeking another engine supplier. Quite why they are doing all this is shrouded behind politics although as if this isn't going to grab the headlines, then having two of the most unpredictable drivers in the game certainly will. Felipe Massa is a huge talent, blessed with both the talent of incredible car control and a penchant for making really bad decisions. The really big story is the "proper" return of Jacques Villeneuve who on his day has the capability to embarrass even Schumacher, although this unnerving speed behind the wheel is generally lost behind pointless comments and stupid errors.
TOYOTA
Toyota has reason to be cheerful at the start of this season. They've got a reasonable car, massive budget and a good driver pairing in Ralf Schumacher and Jarno Trulli. All things being equal, they should improve and get the odd podium with any luck. Reasons to be less cheerful are a demanding parent company who appear somewhat confused as to why they aren't at least winning races if not the championship. The winds of change are beginning to blow at Toyota.
MINARDI
Minardi look set to go under this season, they can't even afford to adapt their cars for the new regulations, and whilst it may seem harsh that Ferrari are presently blocking the team from using 2004 spec cars in Australia, let's be honest, we all love an underdog, but this is getting embarrassing. The time has come to either let some investors buy a share or sell their entry on in its entirety. Minardi's presence on the grid is a constant reminder to potential investors just how embarrassing and expensive a mistake venturing into F1 can be.
Australian GP
The Albert Park track in Melbourne is one of the better street circuits in the world. Somehow this series of bland highways joins up to provide a tough challenge for the worlds finest drivers.
Whilst it is the acid test for the teams after the winter testing, it unusually asks very little of the car aerodynamically so it does tend to give teams false hope when they score a lucky result here only to come up short when the more traditional tracks are encountered.
What Albert Park does reward more than anything is precise driving and the ability to make the car pivot using the throttle. Both these traits will give a driver the ability to achieve a fast lap time so expect Trulli and Schumacher Snr. to be good straight away.
Trying to guess what happens here is a tough task of anyone, especially considering the fact it often becomes a race of attrition with engines blowing and other teething troubles surfacing although taking a deeper look at the new regulations does offer some interesting options.
Fisichella has always been awesome in qualifying trim with a decent car. Given his team's (Renault) form over the winter then he's a good choice for the pole (10/1 with Stan James) and I'd also go for a Renault win in the race at 4/1 with Blue Square.
| Posted: March 04, 2005 | ||
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