Horse racing betting: Tolworth Hurdle

Nine rivals line up in opposition to Deep Purple for the Tolworth Hurdle at 2.40pm on Saturday at Sandown, with the sole intention of knocking Evan Williams's charge off his perch.

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The mount of Paul Moloney, is yet to be defeated in five outings this year, and most recently tasted victory when 4/6 favourite for a Grade 2 event at Ascot. So highly regarded is he by his trainer that, Williams is considering entering him for the Champion Hurdle. He is also 25/1 with Paddy Power to win the Supreme Novices Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

Deep Purple has made a habit of winning from the front in his races but after the Ascot success, Williams said that his charge was quite happy tucked in off a strong pace. His only weakness could be soft ground, which is not what he is facing today. All in, it will take an awful lot of improvement from the rest of the field to get past him.

Which is why it is a surprise that he is not a lot shorter than Bet365's 10/3 quote. Sure, this is his biggest undertaking so far, but at 10/3 he looks the best bet of the race.

Jockey Mick Fitzgerald has been beaten twice by the favourite, on two different horses, and he lines up hoping for third time lucky aboard the Brendan Powell-trained Psychomodo.

Fitzgerald's mount finished behind Lodge Lane last time out, who subsequently went on to win a 19-runner novice event at Exeter. This looks a tall order for the pair however, and the layers agree going a double-figure price about their chances.

Breedsbreeze is the second favourite at 7/2. Trained by Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh, the six year-old has run just four times, winning once, and his five-length second to Ring the Boss at Sandown does not look good enough.

Ring the Boss went on to get thrashed by Jack the Giant and on collateral form therefore, which can be misleading at times, Colin Bolger's mount Alsadaa holds a decent chance of upsetting the favourite. Alsadaa finished just a length second to Jack The Giant in the ultra-competitive Ladbroke Hurdle, and what made that even more impressive was that he was conceding 3lbs to his rival.

Alsadaa has clashed with Deep Purple before, at Kempton in October, but fell before making a serious challenge. Bet Direct go 13/2, and for those not comfortable backing favourites, this one looks fair value.

Of the others, Henrietta Knight's Calgary Bay is high-regarded, but it took the persuasive talents of Tony McCoy to boot him home last time out. With three seconds to his name, either it has taken time for him to get to grips with the game, or he likes to idle. Whatever the reason, it would be safer to watch McCoy's mount this time, rather than paying to find out about his attitude.

Howard Johnson has done well with flat recruits in the past, and Moonhawk looks  another decent sort, but at 9/1 with Stan James, he looks a leap of faith.

Verdict: 2pts Deep Purple @ 10/3 (Bet365)

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