Royal Ascot: Day five preview

Saturday's two big sprints, the Golden Jubilee (3.45pm) and the Wokingham Stakes (4.25pm), have been tarnished by the fact that most races at Royal Ascot this year have been won by horses who were racing from the low to middle numbered draws.

Click here for a free £50 to bet on Royal Ascot with Stan James

As far as the purists are concerned, it has detracted from the spectacle that the sport provides, and as far as punters are concerned, it has limited the numbers of horses potentially involved in the finish. Now that may be seen as a good thing to some, but if you have picked your horse, and no more than half the field can win, then you don't get the best odds.

Whatever your preferences, there is a cracking bet in the Wokingham, and it centres around a horse who is draw on the stands side in stall four. Initially, Abraham Lincoln doesn't look the best punt in the world, given that his form figures this season read 929, but if you look at the races he has been contesting, he could easily be way classier than the field.

On Tuesday he came ninth in the King's Stand Stakes, probably the most competitive five-furlong sprint staged anywhere in Europe. Abraham Lincoln was hampered slightly, and from stall nine he had to track over to the stands side. He was patiently ridden when his chance had gone, and as a result it was a decent effort.

He ran second to Astronomer Royal on his previous start, and on firm ground, too. That horse was good enough to win the French 2,000 Guineas last year and finished third in the St James's Palace Stakes – both Group 1s. I'd be amazed if any of today's Wokingham field had the ability to finish just half a length off such a horse.

It's not as if his run in the Abernat Stakes on his seasonal bow was so bad either. Newmarket's Listed sprint in April was fiercely competitive and Abraham Lincoln simply wasn't ready.

The four-year-old is near the head of the handicap on 9st 9lbs, but if you look down the list, the bottom-weight only carries 9st. The tip couldn't also want for better connections in Aidan O'Brien and Johnny Murtagh, who have been in sparkling form all week.

Another to consider is Tombi, who is drawn in stall nine. Howard Johnson's  Johannesburg gelding has some solid form behind Docofthebay, who ran so well in the Hunt  Cup on Wednesday, and looks sure to improve having had just ten career starts.

The Golden Jubilee now looks in the grasp of Australian challenger Takeover Target after he was given stall two on Thursday. Joe Janiak, his trainer, has gone on record to say that his seven-year-old is now better over six furlongs, and at 6/1, he looks fair value to scalp Marchand D'Or and Sakhee's Secret who haven't got the best draws in 12 and nine respectively.

Verdict: 3pts each-way Abraham Lincoln @ 10/1; 1pt win Takeover Target @ 6/1

Click here for a free £50 to bet on Royal Ascot with Stan James